Shadow books
Paper books replayed every night through the live engine from go-live, on the data the live system had at each decision and at the exchange's real fee rate. Two kinds: independent rules judged against holding Bitcoin (1.000), and the live system with exactly one change judged against the live book. No book is promoted automatically; the owner reviews them. Since 2026-09-02; data to 2026-11-04.
Every book, day by day
live book1.000 hold-BTCconstant_mix_70_30hashdex_momentumold_exitmaxpain_gaphedge_no_stable_coverpromotion_minimumfresh_break_offhedge_no_flush_gatealt_no_trimsstop_alwaystranche_entriesevent_blackoutma200_switchalt_basket_offliq_reversalichimoku_switchgex_regime
Independent rules, against holding Bitcoin
| book | × hold-BTC | vs 1.000, pts | max DD % | trades | fees % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| constant_mix_70_30 Independent rule. A fixed mix rebalanced inside a band; no signal at all. | 1.039 | 3.86 | 3.50 | 8 | 0.188 |
| hashdex_momentum A published mechanical benchmark: the Vinter/Kaiko Hashdex risk-parity-momentum index (top-12 by cap, momentum x equal-risk weights, 30% cap, monthly), with its own 30% BTC floor. | 1.030 | 3.05 | 3.68 | 26 | 0.669 |
| ma200_switch Independent rule. Long BTC above the 200-day average, partly out below it. | 1.000 | -0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.000 |
| liq_reversal Independent rule. Buys after long-liquidation flushes, expecting the bounce; decides hourly. | 0.943 | -5.73 | 12.72 | 25 | 5.049 |
| ichimoku_switch Independent rule. Long or flat on a daily Ichimoku composite. | 0.919 | -8.11 | 12.92 | 3 | 0.652 |
| gex_regime Independent rule. Long or flat on the options dealers' gamma regime; decides hourly. | 0.912 | -8.80 | 8.80 | 20 | 4.479 |
The live system with one change, against the live book
The live book stands at 1.005.
| book | × hold-BTC | vs live book, pts | max DD % | trades | fees % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| old_exit The live system without the S80c exit fix: alt coins leave only on the daily-ratio trend flip. | 1.026 | 2.15 | 10.08 | 32 | 0.859 |
| maxpain_gap The live system plus an options max-pain rule near expiry, pre-registered from a public claim. | 1.024 | 1.96 | 10.65 | 43 | 1.239 |
| hedge_no_flush_gate The live system with the hedge rule it used until 5 Oct, kept as the comparison for that change. | 1.020 | 1.50 | 10.65 | 39 | 1.042 |
| fresh_break_off The live system with the alt sizing it used until 6 Oct, kept as the comparison for that change. | 1.020 | 1.50 | 10.65 | 39 | 1.042 |
| promotion_minimum The live system with the position-sizing rule it used until 19 Sep, kept as the comparison for that change. | 1.020 | 1.50 | 10.65 | 39 | 1.042 |
| hedge_no_stable_cover The live system with the hedge rule it used until 8 Oct, kept as the comparison for that change. | 1.020 | 1.50 | 10.65 | 39 | 1.042 |
| alt_no_trims The live system with the alt sleeve it used until 10 Oct, kept as the comparison for that change. | 1.016 | 1.10 | 11.00 | 38 | 1.175 |
| stop_always The live system with the stop rule it used until 1 Oct, kept as the comparison for that change. | 1.014 | 0.89 | 11.19 | 41 | 1.148 |
| tranche_entries The live system, but new entries in daily tranches instead of at once. | 1.006 | 0.09 | 10.75 | 38 | 0.937 |
| event_blackout The live system with the event blackout it used until 24 Sep, kept as the comparison for that change. | 1.005 | 0.03 | 10.69 | 39 | 0.859 |
| alt_basket_off The live system with no alt sleeve at all. | 0.970 | -3.46 | 4.26 | 0 | 0.000 |