Scoreboard

Generated 2026-10-23 08:20 UTC. multiples of holding Bitcoin; counts; dates. Hold-BTC is always 1.000.

Live book

1.046

× hold-BTC since 2026-09-02 20:55:00+00

0.914

of high-water mark

days live

1.000

worst multiple since live

BTC book only (Kraken). Capital is never shown. The on-chain pot is a separate USDC ledger. Half-size at 15 % drawdown, halt at 25 %; not halted. Tokenised-equity pot: 1.000 × USDC, its own ledger.

Day by day

live book1.000 hold-BTCconstant_mix_70_30hashdex_momentumgex_regimeliq_reversalichimoku_switch

One point per daily bar, valued at the bar close, live book and shadow books on the same marks. Multiples of hold-BTC. Shadow books shown here: the independent rules; every book.

Research ledger

23,774

pre-registered trials

batches

109,125

runs on record

Windows: post-ETF epoch, Jan 2024 to today: fit Jan 2024 to Aug 2025 (the only ranked window); holdout, the last 12 months (PASS/FAIL, never ranked); pre-ETF from 2020 and from 2015 as stress: can fail a line, never promote one. Every trial is pre-registered; the ledger is the denominator for the deflated Sharpe ratio.

Decision ledger

Every live proposal — approved or vetoed — scored against the asset/BTC ratio at fixed horizons. Too few rows to mean anything yet; shown anyway. Rows scored: 406.

verdict	horizon (d)	n	mean ratio return %
vetoed	1	74	-0.52
approved	1	34	0.47
vetoed	3	74	2.55
approved	3	34	0.04
vetoed	7	74	6.89
approved	7	32	6.65
vetoed	30	70	-7.23
approved	30	14	7.07

Kitsunebi

426

entries

425

confirmed in Bitcoin

354

registered as written (not retro)

72 rows are retro (existed before the ledger; their proof dates the anchoring day, not the git date). First non-retro registration 2026-09-04. The ledger.